ACAR Watercooler

May Market Results: The Recovery Continues

Posted on June 13, 2010. Filed under: Uncategorized |

…and we should hope so.

Before going to the numbers…anecdotally I hear that business is getting better. I’ve talked to members who’ve gone form no deals in process to 3 or 4…or 3 or 4 deals to 10. Closings are happening. And, as we all know, its getting more complicated. Some of the complication is externally driven, HAMP, HAFA and HAP to name a few…some is internal as we try to create new ways of doing business in a constantly changing landscape.

May ’10 sales in Ada County were 625. That’s a 45% increase over May ’09. Year-to-Date ’10 is now 2,492; an increase of 44% over the first five months of last year. In May 44.8% of all house sold were in distress. This is down more than 6% from April. Any improvement is good.

Let’s look at this another way…real estate dollar volume for 2010 now totals $452.5 million. That’s $103 million dollars more moving through our economy that the same period in 2009. Most media talking heads agree…our economic recovery is based on housing. Here in Ada County, for now anyway, we are doing our part.

The number of pending sales dropped more than 32% from April to May from 1162 to 799. This comes as no surprise. The expiration of the tax credit was a sad day, but lots of qualified Idahoans were able to use it to get their own home. The percentage of pending sales in distress is 48%. That’s down from our high in March, but still too high to celebrate. Realty Track wrote last week that Idaho had gone from 6th in the nation to 7th in foreclosure filings. Let’s hold off on the celebration until we get out of the top 10.

Inventory increased by 100 houses from last month to this. At the same time, the percentage of active inventory that is distressed, decreased by 5% to 46.9% at month’s end. That’s suggests that more “traditional” sellers are entering the market at the beginning of our selling season.
Median home price increased by $3,350 to $153,500 from April. Year-to-date ’01 our median is $155,000 (Existing – -$154,900 and New $162,891). For buyers, the better indicator might be Average Price. In May our average Price for a home in Ada County was $177,197. In April the Average Price was $182,000.

The biggest risk for continued improve continue to be jobs. We had a very modest improve in unemployment numbers in March, but we are still much too close to 10% to be crowing.

Now, just when we needed it least, another black cloud, or black plume is on the horizon. The full impact on our economy, and our recovery, of the Gulf disaster is far from being known. One thing is for sure, its not going to be good for anyone.

Make a Comment